OECD Report on Regulatory Approaches to Asset Tokenisation
February 23, 2021How to Use Probability to Pick Winning Stocks
February 23, 2021
Cold doesn’t even begin to describe the weather in much of the US and Canada this past week. Texas saw temperatures that rivaled that of Fairbanks — for the unaware, that’s highly unusual.Millions were without power in the Lonestar State, and those that managed to keep the lights on are finding power bills that are over $9000. Good news for wood-burning stove manufacturers, terrible news for millions of citizens.But who’s to blame for this cascading grid failure in a state famed for its energy exports? Data analytics firm Cascend Strategy suggests an inconvenient answer — pretty much every segment of the Texan power grid.Wind turbines failed first, freezing solid overnight. Nat gas took up the bulk of this deficit but soon fell prey to the deep freeze.Hell, even a nuclear power plant shut down due to lack of winterization.Cascend’s recommendation? Winterize equipment, add power reserves for energy companies, and optimize the existing grid. Easier said than done, but it’s a great place to start.Nat Gas saves the day, sort of.The exploding domestic demand for energy still wasn’t enough to stop the US from experiencing its first-ever petroleum surplus on record.Big win for US energy! However, the country also experienced its worst trade deficit since 2008 — the total trade deficit is down by 17.7%.Given the macroeconomic environment, this dichotomy shouldn’t shock you too much. The real US economy is still reeling from lockdowns while Wall Street hits new all-time highs. It’s a topsy-turvy investment landscape.Everywhere we look, the real economy is struggling while traditional markets way up. So much so that the famous Buffet Indicator is flashing all kinds of red lights — all-time high valuations just surpassed the Dot Com bubble.Stocks are now 84% higher than the long-term trendline, demonstrating steep historic overvaluation.Given the recent retail mania, which saw…
