Bitcoin Is A Keynesian Beauty Contest In An Irrational Market

If you are to believe that the cryptocurrency market is a bubble, then it is because of an irrational market that is judging a “Keynesian Beauty Contest.” According to investor PlanB, you can separate the players in the crypto space based on their level of thinking. Some play it by ear and base their investment decisions on the market trends (e.g., TA). Others don’t know what they are doing and just FOMO in. Then there are the really rational thinkers who bring smart money to the game. In all this, it appears that the higher an investor’s level of thinking, the better off they are. They have less chances of getting REKT compared to the zero-level thinkers. For the most part, it seems that people think based on what is popular at the time rather than what is the most rational (e.g. follow the leader).What makes them so irrational?It is the hype cycle where everybody hears something, and they want and then jump the bandwagon. That was the narrative of 2017 when BTC (Bitcoin) was reaching an ATH close to $20K. Then 2018 came, and the support dropped as weak hands exited and FUD set in, eventually leading to a very large correction. BTC fell by 65% during the month from January to February 2018. It seems to be a cycle that has now been an observed pattern. Just when BTC was reaching a new ATH, it would correct and fall back down to a lower level of support. Then it suddenly surges after a bearish cycle.A bad decision would be to put money in something, whether stock or cryptocurrency because the prices are surging. By impulse, those who don’t bother to think about what is really happening just get in because they expect the prices to continue going higher…