We live in an unprecedented investment environment. Global interest rates are at historically low levels and global debt is at levels that dwarf previous eras. The global pandemic, despite the presence of vaccines, remains uncontrolled. Governments must resort to enormous stimulus measures to support the economy and central banks are expanding the money supply seemingly without limit.Yet, against this sobering backdrop, global stock markets have risen strongly since the market crash of March 2020. The recent strength of stocks has attracted a new generation of small investors that has helped fuel the market\u2019s rise, which has contributed to a general level of investor optimism not seen since the days of the internet bubble at the turn of the century.There has never been a greater disconnect between the behaviour of the stock market and the underlying economy in history. What can investors expect going forward? Forecasting the future is always uncertain, but one guesstimate I can make with some confidence is that the months and years ahead are likely going to provide a bumpy ride.I present two reasons to support my view.The chart above depicts the yearly average of the Volatility Index of the S&P 500 (VIX). The Vix is a calculation of expected volatility of the S&P 500 derived from the pricing of options on the S&P 500. The VIX has typically been used as a gauge of investor fear or complacency, with the VIX rising as fear levels increase and falling when investors are more optimistic or complacent.What is noteworthy about the chart is that the end of 2019 represented the 8th consecutive year that the VIX traded below historical averages. This is important to note because volatility has a strong tendency to revert to the mean. In other words, periods of low volatility will eventually be followed by\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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