![\"Patrick](\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/fit\/c\/96\/96\/1*CHmajIxeqU0MhGYZ4ViZAA.jpeg\")
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When Alex Turnbull was a teenager growing up in the small town of Hemmingway, North Carolina, he only knew one thing \u2014 hogs.<\/p>\n
After all, Turnbull\u2019s great grandfather, grandfather and his father before him had been hog farmers.<\/p>\n
E quando ele estava prestes a se formar, havia poucas d\u00favidas sobre onde ele iria acabar um dia, a apenas v\u00e1rios quil\u00f4metros de sua escola, na cria\u00e7\u00e3o de porcos.<\/p>\n
Yet if Turnbull was disappointed with his lot in life, it didn\u2019t show.<\/p>\n
Embora seus amigos do col\u00e9gio tivessem grandes planos de ir para Charleston ou outras grandes cidades, Turnbull n\u00e3o apenas aceitou, mas abra\u00e7ou o lote que desenhou na vida.<\/p>\n
At\u00e9 as \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas ou mais, a cria\u00e7\u00e3o de porcos era uma atividade agr\u00edcola altamente manual e pr\u00e1tica, realizada principalmente por pequenos propriet\u00e1rios como a fam\u00edlia Turnbull.<\/p>\n
Mas com a industrializa\u00e7\u00e3o e a cria\u00e7\u00e3o industrial, e um apetite aparentemente insaci\u00e1vel por carne su\u00edna, alguns dos maiores nomes da agricultura industrial compraram milh\u00f5es de hectares de fazendas de su\u00ednos de pequenos propriet\u00e1rios e os fizeram contratar agricultores, em termos altamente favor\u00e1veis \u00e0s grandes corpora\u00e7\u00f5es, mas essencialmente fez dos fazendeiros nada mais do que escravos contratados para as corpora\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/p>\n
Turnbull percebeu que pequenas propriedades ao seu redor, uma a uma, come\u00e7aram a carregar a bandeira de alguns dos maiores nomes da carne su\u00edna e seus derivados e estava determinado a seguir um caminho diferente.<\/p>\n
Tendo lido sobre um tipo de porco espec\u00edfico da regi\u00e3o Ib\u00e9rica em Espanha, ouviu falar que a sua carne era conhecida mundialmente pela sua qualidade e sabor.<\/p>\n
Acreditando que ele poderia fazer algo semelhante em sua pr\u00f3pria pequena propriedade, Turnbull literalmente apostou a fazenda para criar porcos de alta qualidade, especialmente alimentados, que receberiam uma dieta especial de ma\u00e7\u00e3s e nozes que permeariam e temperariam sua carne, e cobrariam um pr\u00eamio pelo produto.<\/p>\n
Turnbull\u2019s father was initially hesitant, believing that the safest route for the farm was to go the way of the big corporations and cave to their demands, but Turnbull junior was insistent, because by his calculation, taking a risk was perhaps the safer bet at the end of the day.<\/p>\n
E valeu a pena.<\/p>\n
Enquanto as fazendas vizinhas ca\u00edam na espada dos grandes produtores de carne su\u00edna, a Turnbull Farms produzia produtos su\u00ednos de alta qualidade em pequenos lotes, pelos quais podiam cobrar um pr\u00eamio enorme.<\/p>\n
Today, Turnbull Farm\u2019s pork products can be found in gourmet supermarkets from Charleston to Chicago and are prized for their quality, flavor and ethical farming methods.<\/p>\n
Porque \u00e0s vezes a seguran\u00e7a pode ser encontrada em assumir os maiores riscos.<\/p>\n
And as the world confronts the seemingly relentless economic onslaught wrought by the coronavirus pandemic, investors have been left frantically searching for \u201csafe haven\u201d assets, only to find that there may be no such thing.<\/p>\n
With geopolitical tensions between the world\u2019s two largest economies rising, the investing world has entered into its most complex and difficult phase in over a decade.<\/p>\n
A pandemia trouxe consigo numerosos constrangimentos comerciais e introduziu uma vasta incerteza econ\u00f3mica tanto nas empresas como nas fam\u00edlias.<\/p>\n
Nesse contexto, as duas \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas marcaram um decl\u00ednio secular nas taxas de juros reais de longo prazo para a maioria dos pa\u00edses ricos.<\/p>\n
E embora os bancos centrais tenham tentado aumentar as taxas em v\u00e1rias ocasi\u00f5es desde ent\u00e3o, nenhuma dessas tentativas funcionou, pois os mercados amea\u00e7aram afundar ao primeiro sinal de hawkness do banco central.<\/p>\n
The coronavirus pandemic has simply put a two decades\u2019 long trend in real interest rates, into sharp focus, as consumers faced with rising uncertainty reduce consumption and increase savings which helps to further depress rates.<\/p>\n
E embora, historicamente, tenha havido uma abund\u00e2ncia de ativos seguros, como t\u00edtulos do governo altamente cotados ou t\u00edtulos garantidos por im\u00f3veis, a crise financeira de 2008 desfez esses santu\u00e1rios.<\/p>\n
A crise da d\u00edvida europeia de 2009 levou os t\u00edtulos alem\u00e3es (alguns dos t\u00edtulos soberanos mais bem cotados do mundo) a taxas negativas, enquanto a crise imobili\u00e1ria nos Estados Unidos que levou \u00e0 crise financeira de 2008 dizimou o mercado de t\u00edtulos lastreados em hipotecas.<\/p>\n
O desastroso colapso da d\u00edvida soberana de Portugal, It\u00e1lia, Gr\u00e9cia e Espanha (formando a infeliz sigla PIGS) manchou a reputa\u00e7\u00e3o dos t\u00edtulos soberanos europeus.<\/p>\n
E a antiga cren\u00e7a de que os ativos dos EUA lastreados em terras nunca cairiam drasticamente se provou errada em 2008.<\/p>\n
With sovereign debt from rich countries and asset-backed securities having lost their \u201csafe haven\u201d status, investors have been left feckless at a time when \u201csafe haven\u201d assets are more in demand than at any time in the past.<\/p>\n
And that shortage of \u201csafe haven\u201d assets has seen a rush into gold \u2014 which although down somewhat from its record high, remains above multi-year averages \u2014 as well as cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.<\/p>\n
Because there is a limit to how low interest rates can go (a form of zero lower bound or negative interest rate) to clear this excess demand for \u201csafe haven\u201d assets, low rates can create a persistent stagnation in the global economy and dramatically hamstring the efficacy of monetary policy, at a time when policymakers are increasingly running out of tools to boost the economy.<\/p>\n
E o aumento da tens\u00e3o entre Washington e Pequim poderia potencialmente se espalhar para uma guerra cambial que levaria ao fundo do po\u00e7o para ambas as moedas fiduci\u00e1rias e entraria na narrativa que ap\u00f3ia tanto Bitcoin quanto ouro.<\/p>\n
Para aumentar a sensa\u00e7\u00e3o de incerteza, quem vencer\u00e1 as elei\u00e7\u00f5es presidenciais dos EUA em novembro \u00e9 uma preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o menor se haver\u00e1 uma transi\u00e7\u00e3o suave de poder (se houver).<\/p>\n
To be sure, America\u2019s democratic institutions have come under serious pressure by almost four years of the Trump administration, and a failure for a smooth democratic handover, should Biden win the White House, may be the last straw on the camel\u2019s back for American democracy.<\/p>\n
E essa incerteza pol\u00edtica pode ter um efeito dram\u00e1tico sobre o valor do d\u00f3lar, a cren\u00e7a nos t\u00edtulos do Tesouro dos EUA.<\/p>\n
A f\u00e9 global no d\u00f3lar e em suas institui\u00e7\u00f5es democr\u00e1ticas, se prejudicada, poderia jogar direto no manual de investidores de ouro e Bitcoin.<\/p>\n
But investors betting on Bitcoin for safety should also note the new entrants into the digital asset markets, for whom \u201csafety\u201d is an unintentional byproduct, as opposed to an articulated goal.<\/p>\n
Alguns dos maiores nomes da banca de investimento, incluindo Goldman Sachs e JPMorgan Chase, j\u00e1 atiraram os p\u00e9s na \u00e1gua quando se trata da nascente classe de ativos digitais, mas h\u00e1 muitos outros aglomerados \u00e0 beira da piscina.<\/p>\n
E os bancos europeus, incluindo o Standard Chartered e o UBS, tamb\u00e9m est\u00e3o monitorando de perto o espa\u00e7o, onde os bancos privados j\u00e1 deram o salto.<\/p>\n
O motorista designado parecia um pouco entusiasmado demais. (Foto de Jacob Bentzinger em Unsplash)<\/p>\n
Mas a hist\u00f3ria tem demonstrado que, quando os bancos de investimento se envolvem, quase invariavelmente alimentam maior especula\u00e7\u00e3o e volatilidade.<\/p>\n
As investment bankers feed off fee income and juice bets with leverage, especially given the highly unregulated state of the digital asset industry, can Bitcoin really serve the role that it\u2019s being touted to serve in portfolios?<\/p>\n
If and when the coronavirus pandemic comes to pass, the demand for a mix of \u201csafe\u201d and \u201crisky\u201d assets needs to be balanced \u2014 the options can\u2019t simply be \u201crisky\u201d and \u201cmore risky.\u201d<\/p>\n
And existing investment paradigms will need to be shifted to redefine portfolio risk as well as what qualifies as a \u201csafe\u201d asset class.<\/p>\n
Against this backdrop, the many snake oil salesmen (and women) touting Bitcoin as a cure-all for the pandemic\u2019s economic ails, must be received with more than a pinch of salt.<\/p>\n
And while there are plenty of macro factors which threaten our existing assumptions about fiat currency, not least among which has been the relentless money-printing, that doesn\u2019t make it obvious that gold and Bitcoin are the necessary successors to the fiat currency system.<\/p>\n
It may be that the global financial system will need to go through a painful period of re-discovery \u2014 to reassess what value and risk actually mean to the individual investor and more importantly, whether there\u2019s such a thing as a \u201csafe asset\u201d to even begin with.<\/p>\n
For now, the sooner investors learn to embrace that all assets are risky, the easier it will become to make sense of our present age \u2014 and that acceptance of risk, may end up becoming the safest asset of all.<\/p>\n
We can\u2019t all be hog farmers.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Like sands through the hourglass, so are the assets of our lives. From bullion to Bitcoin, man\u2019s search for safety and security in an uncertain world [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1708,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[35],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1707"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1707"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1707\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}