An Adoption S-Curve for a New Monetary TechnologyThis is not investment advice. Bitcoin is highly volatile. Past performance of back-tested models is no assurance of future performance. Only invest what you can afford to lose. You must decide how much of your investment capital you are willing to risk with Bitcoin. No warranties are expressed or implied.Figure 1: Technology adoption curves for some major inventions. Bitcoin is 12 years old and has 11% adoption in the US.Technology S-CurvesIt is well known that technology adoption approximates an S-Curve or logistic function. It took half a century for electricity to be widely adopted in the US, a quarter of a century for half the population to get TVs, but mobile phone adoption took only half that time.Bitcoin is still in its early adopter phase. This article estimates 11% of the population in the US own Bitcoin https:\/\/www.bitcoinmarketjournal.com\/how-many-people-use-bitcoin\/.Bitcoin recently reached $1 trillion in market cap for the first time, but that is just a fraction of gold\u2019s $10 trillion market cap. Bitcoin is often referred to as digital gold. Of course, gold has taken thousands of years to reach its present market cap.It would be interesting to know if Bitcoin will reach gold\u2019s total value ($10 trillion) or even exceed that level and begin to challenge the market cap of US equities ($50 trillion), 2\/3 of which was accrued in the past decade. The value of all M2 broad money around the world is some $100 trillion. The US M2 total increased by 26% last year as the government and the Fed responded forcefully to the COVID crisis.Many other models are not S-CurvesThe best-known model for Bitcoin\u2019s value is the stock-to-flow model, but it does not follow an S-curve. Rather it is a power law in market cap or price relative to the\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
An Adoption S-Curve for a New Monetary TechnologyThis is not investment advice. Bitcoin is highly volatile. Past performance of back-tested models is no assurance of future [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":2796,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[35],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3803"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3803"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3803\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/ru\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}