Amid the recent recovery in Bitcoin\u2019s price to $40K, there are both bullish and bearish arguments to be made for the upcoming future, based on on-chain data alone.Going through the recent week and touching the $40K mark, there are some promising signs in on-chain data that could lead to a further price recovery in the market. However, some metrics still make an immediate rally back to the all-time high a questionable probability.Let\u2019s explore the bull and the bear case for Bitcoin\u2019s price in the current market condition, stemming from predominantly on-chain information.To summarize the overall bullish indications from an on-chain perspective, we can look at the exchange net position change on all exchanges.This examines the change of the supply held in exchange wallets over the past 30 days. To make things smoother, there\u2019s a 90-SMA version of the metric presented in the chart below.Historically speaking, there is a repeated pattern in all last three bitcoin cycles.Around the middle of the cycle, wherein the bearish phase, a significant capitulation usually occurs, and we observe a slight net decline in the exchange\u2019s reserve (red circle)Before the significant bull run phase, there\u2019s an enormous negative net change in exchanges\u2019 Bitcoin reserve (yellow rectangle). In practicality, this is an accumulation phase for experienced players in the market. These stakeholders intend to withdraw from exchanges wallets.Through the following phase, Euphoria, wherein the prominent entities in the market (whales, institutional players, and smart money) are selling into the market\u2019s strength. Here in this phase, inflowing Bitcoins into exchanges are bought by newcomers who intend to hold their assets on the exchanges.The first two parts of the above pattern have already occurred in the current cycle. Therefore, assuming Bitcoin repeats the three parts of the cycle, we could be at the beginning of a long bull run,\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Amid the recent recovery in Bitcoin\u2019s price to $40K, there are both bullish and bearish arguments to be made for the upcoming future, based on on-chain [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":2796,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[35],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5056"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5056"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5056\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/zh\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5056"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5056"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afluxcoin.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5056"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}